11 February 2025
The OPTA supercomputer has made its predictions about the top candidates to win the 2024-25 Champions League title, with the first leg of the play-offs to qualify for the round of 16 of the continental competition kicking off on Tuesday.
After the group stage with the new tournament system that included 36 teams, we are back to the simpler things in the 2024-25 Champions League, which is the knockout stage.
As a reminder, this round is played by the teams that ranked from ninth to twenty-fourth in the group stage, where they will compete in two-leg matches for a chance to qualify for the round of 16.
According to the supercomputer, Liverpool have the best chance of winning at 24.6%. Arsenal (16.6%) and Inter Milan (14.5%) are also in the top three. Liverpool, Arsenal and Inter Milan, as well as Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, Lille and Aston Villa, have qualified directly for the last eight based on their aggregate results.
A further 16 teams, including Real Madrid, Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain, are in the play-offs, which kick off tonight.
The computer estimates the odds of each match (win, draw or lose) using betting odds and Opta team ratings.
These odds and ratings are based on the teams' historical and current performances. The entire competition is simulated 10,000 times to come up with the final predictions for each team.
Last year's winners were Real Madrid, who beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 in the final.
