Sunderland were one of the Premier League's biggest success stories in 2025-26, defying relegation predictions to finish seventh and secure European football. Now, with tougher expectations, concerning underlying statistics and a Europa League campaign ahead, can the Black Cats prove their doubters wrong again?
Promoted from the Championship through the play-offs in May 2025, Sunderland returned to the Premier League after an eight-year absence and produced a remarkable campaign under Regis Le Bris.
Widely tipped for an immediate return to the Championship, the Black Cats instead finished seventh and qualified for Europe for the first time since 1973.
Despite that achievement, Sunderland head into the new season among the bookmakers' relegation favourites, outside newly promoted Hull City, Coventry and Ipswich.
Three factors explain much of that pessimism: Sunderland's underlying numbers from last season, the threat of so-called "second-season syndrome" and the additional demands of European football.
But how concerned should Sunderland supporters really be?
Results ultimately determine where a team finishes, but Sunderland's underlying statistics suggest repeating last season's seventh-place finish could be difficult.
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances a team creates and concedes, offering an indication of whether performances are sustainable over a longer period.
Only relegated Burnley and Wolves recorded a worse xG difference than Sunderland last season. West Ham, who had the fourth-worst overall xG figure, were also relegated.
Sunderland and Aston Villa were notable exceptions, finishing significantly higher than their underlying numbers suggested. Most other clubs ended the campaign broadly in line with their statistical performances.
The three teams with the best xG differences finished in the Premier League's top three in the same order. Excluding Sunderland, the five clubs with the worst figures occupied the bottom five positions.
Only Manchester City and Aston Villa outperformed their xG numbers by more than Sunderland. The Black Cats scored three more goals than expected while conceding six fewer based on the quantity and quality of shots faced.
Across the entire season, Sunderland's performances therefore appeared less convincing than their seventh-place finish suggested.
However, there is important context.
Sunderland were particularly affected by the Africa Cup of Nations in December and January, losing six players to the tournament — twice as many as any other Premier League club.
Their performances had already declined following an impressive start to the season, but the absence of so many players placed further pressure on Le Bris' squad.
Once those players returned, however, Sunderland's underlying numbers steadily improved.
By the end of the campaign, their performances were closer to those expected from a mid-table Premier League team, providing encouragement that their early statistical struggles do not tell the entire story.
The idea that promoted teams frequently struggle in their second Premier League season has become part of football folklore.
The numbers suggest the danger may be exaggerated.
Sunderland and Leeds became the 53rd and 54th promoted clubs to survive in the Premier League last season.
Of the previous 52 promoted teams to avoid relegation in their first campaign, only 11 — around 21% — went down the following season.
In other words, the overwhelming majority survived again.
There is, however, a warning from history that Sunderland cannot ignore.
Ipswich produced arguably the greatest first season by a promoted club in the Premier League's 38-game era, finishing fifth with 66 points in 2000-01.
A year later, with European football added to their schedule, George Burley's team dropped 13 places and collected 30 fewer points, finishing 18th and suffering relegation.
Ironically, Sunderland benefited, surviving just one position above Ipswich.
Overall, four of the previous 20 promoted teams to finish in the top half during their first Premier League campaign were relegated the following season — a rate of 20%.
The most recent example was Sheffield United five years ago.
Sunderland themselves have previously shown that an outstanding first season after promotion can be sustained. Under Peter Reid, they finished seventh in 1999-2000 before repeating that position the following campaign, although seventh place did not bring European qualification at the time.
European football represents perhaps the biggest difference this time around.
Sunderland will compete in Europe for the first time in 53 years, adding at least eight Europa League fixtures to their domestic schedule.
They are only the 10th promoted side in Premier League history to qualify for Europe and the fifth to achieve it through their league position, with the others qualifying through cup competitions or fair play.
History offers reasons for optimism.
Five of the previous nine promoted clubs to qualify for Europe secured another top-half Premier League finish the following season. Only two were relegated — Ipswich in the early 2000s and Hull City in the mid-2010s.
Hull's circumstances were unusual. They finished 16th with 37 points in 2013-14 but qualified for Europe after reaching the FA Cup final.
Their European adventure lasted only four matches, ending in the Europa League qualifying rounds in August. Hull were subsequently relegated from the Premier League with 35 points the following May.
Ipswich provide the more concerning comparison.
By the time Inter Milan eliminated them from the UEFA Cup third round on 6 December 2001, Burley's team had won only one of their opening 15 Premier League matches.
Their domestic form briefly recovered, and Ipswich climbed to 12th with 30 points after 25 matches. However, just one victory from their final 13 games ultimately resulted in relegation.
Sunderland will instead hope to emulate Wolves, the most recent promoted Premier League club to qualify for Europe.
Wolves played 17 European matches on their way to the Europa League quarter-finals in 2019-20 but still managed to finish seventh in the Premier League for a second consecutive season.
That achievement demonstrated that European football does not necessarily have to come at the expense of domestic performance.
For Sunderland, squad depth, recruitment and rotation will be crucial as Le Bris attempts to balance Premier League and Europa League commitments.
There are legitimate reasons to question whether Sunderland can reproduce their remarkable 2025-26 campaign.
Their underlying numbers were considerably weaker than their final league position suggested, their squad will face a significantly heavier workload and history provides examples of promoted clubs struggling after unexpectedly qualifying for Europe.
Yet there are equally strong reasons for optimism.
Sunderland's performances improved after their Africa Cup of Nations absentees returned, second-season relegation among promoted survivors is less common than its reputation suggests, and several clubs have successfully balanced European competition with Premier League football after promotion.
The Black Cats' rise from League One to European football has been built on impressive progress and strong management.
Last season they proved the Premier League doubters wrong.
Now they have the opportunity to do it all over again.
